Archive for the 'Mortgage Rates' Category

What’s keeping San Jose Mortgage Rates REALLY low?

by
Shashank
on May 24, 2010
in Mortgage Rates
.  Leave a reply

Mortgage RatesLast week mortgage rates for San Jose homes eased back to the lowest level of the year. According to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey® 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.84 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending May 20, 2010, down from last week when it averaged 4.93 percent.

The 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 3.91 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 3.95 percent.  This breaks last week’s record and, again, the 5-year ARM has not been lower since Freddie Mac started tracking the 5-year ARM in January of 2005.

So what’s keeping the mortgage rates so low?

After Fed stopped buying mortgage backed securities in March 2010, economists and market experts had predicted the interest rates to rise. That did happen for a short while. But recently, the rates have taken a big dive and have broken all kinds of records. The biggest reason being attributed to this is the debt crisis in Europe.

Last week interest rates fell again on a 426 point decline in the Dow Jones Index. Weekly jobless claims unexpectedly jumped 25K last week to a two month high of 471K new unemployment claims. What was the strong belief the economic recovery was solid has now been redefined as a potential double dip with the economy slipping on Europe’s debt problems headlined by Greece. For two months after a strong run up in the equity markets most were expecting a correction in the stock market but didn’t believe it would be this bad. Money running headlong to the safety of US treasuries and has allowed mortgage rates to fall to some of the lowest levels since the 2008 sub-prime crash.

Outlook for the week:

Normally Treasury auctions add pressure to the bond market but the conditions these days are more about safety than concerns over demand. That said, with interest rates so low now it will bring the question that may be mortgage backed securities are at “overbought” levels and that investors may start selling it to book some profit. That of course will result in higher mortgage rates. That argument however, may not hold as the investment world is all about safety these days as the uncertainty over economic expansion is increasing rapidly.

Keep watching this space for news on mortgage rates or follow me on Twitter for live updates on mortgage bonds and market.

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San Jose Mortgage Rate and Market Commentary

by
Shashank
on May 3, 2010
in Mortgage Rates
.  Leave a reply

San Jose Mortgage Rate (30 Year Fixed and 5 Year ARM) and Market Commentary for the week of May 3rd, 2010.

The week that was:

  • Freddie Mac in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® reported that 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.06 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending April 29, 2010, down slightly from last week when it averaged 5.07 percent. The 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.00 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.03 percent.

“Mortgage rates on 30-year fixed loans have averaged about 5 percent over the first four months of this year, staying within a band of roughly a quarter percentage point and virtually matching 2009’s annual average,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist.” These low rates have been helping to moderate house price declines over the course of the year.

  • Most of the week markets focused on the debt issues in the European Union led by the cliff-hanging balancing on Greece’s potential sovereign debt defaults.
  • Last week’s economic data, the few there was, were generally indicative of recovery. Key stock indexes ended the week lower even with better reports from the Chicago manufacturing report covering the mid-west and another decline in unemployment filings.
  • The FOMC meeting concluded with continued comments that the Fed will interest rates low for a lot longer.
  • Treasury sold $118B in 2 yr, 5 yr and 7 yr notes, of the three auction the 7 yr note on Thursday was the strongest as the Fed continues to confirm that inflation is not on the radar.

The Week that will be:

  • Monday has March personal income and spending and the April ISM manufacturing report. There key data points each day this week, but the big one markets will be setting up for, comes on Friday with the March employment report. The early estimates are for non-farm payrolls to have increased about 200K with the unemployment rate unchanged at 9.7%.
  • Interest rate markets will likely continue in their respective narrow and directionless pattern with not much change by the end of the week. We  do expect some increased volatility early this week based on economic releases and continuing news coming from the EU over the debt problems in Europe.
  • The Goldman-Sachs civil suit and now a possible criminal charge will also get attention from investors and traders this week.

If you would like to remain updated on how mortgage bonds and hence mortgage rates are trending on a daily basis follow me on Twitter where I tweet about live updates.

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San Jose Mortgage Rate & Market Commentary

by
Shashank
on April 19, 2010
in Mortgage Rates
. 1 Comment

San Jose Mortgage Rate & Market commentary. Check out how the 30 year fixed mortgage rate and 5 year ARM rates did last week and how they are expected to fare this week.

The week that was:

  • Last week Freddie Mac in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey®  reported the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.07 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending April 15, 2010, down from last week when it averaged 5.21 percent. The 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.08 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.25 percent.

“After rising for four consecutive weeks, mortgage rates eased back to where they were two weeks ago and still remain historically low,” said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. “”Low mortgage rates continue to help stabilize the housing market. The Fed  noted that residential activity increased while home prices were stable across most of its 12 Districts over the six weeks prior to April 5th. In addition, credit standards remained generally unchanged across the nation, while credit quality was mixed according to the report.”

  • The story of the week however didn’t hit until Friday morning when the SEC announced it was charging Goldman Sachs with fraud in its dealings in the sub prime mortgage markets. Specifically, for mis-leading a client while another client was setting up to short the same security. The immediate result was a strong sell-off in the stock market, led by financial stocks and money moving into the bond market, lowering rates.

The Week that will be:

  • Will begin with the Goldman Sachs fraud charges following the stock market decline on Friday. This week the economic data is sparse with existing and new home sales the headliners on Thursday and Friday.
  • We are not expecting any major rate declines unless there is a sea change in the economic outlook, and that isn’t likely.
  • The Goldman situation will settle down; the key take away from the charges filed is whether this is the beginning of a sweep through Wall Street by the SEC. The Street is likely to get a lot of attention and likely more firms and charges will unfold.

If you would like to be updated on where the mortgage rates and market are moving follow me on Twitter.

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What happens to mortgage rates; now that FED stopped buying it?

by
Shashank
on April 4, 2010
in Mortgage Rates
. 1 Comment

Mortgage rates were hammered last week after Fed officially stopped buying mortgage backed securities. Fannie Mae 30 year (4.5%) mortgage bond opened the week at 100.44, was down 97 bps for the week as it closed at 99.47 (see chart below). The mortgage rates for most of the programs had jumped up by .25%. These are ominous signs.

mbs_last_week_march1

If last week was any indication this is not going to be a slow rise in interest rates as a lot of experts had predicted.

mortgage_rates_forecast1

From what we have seen so far we are definitely looking at mid -high 5s by the end of the year. For the real estate market that is still fragile, more than .5% increase in rates could come as a big blow.

If you were looking to buy a house and had a Pre-approval done, it may be a good idea to get it reviewed again by your lender. An already .25% increase in rate means that  you may not qualify for the same amount of mortgage that you did 1 week back. And if you are looking to refinance, you opportunity to get a low rate may be limited.

If you would like to be updated on how the mortgage bond market and hence the mortgage rate market is moving, follow me on twitter or complete our live rate quote form.

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San Jose Mortgage Rates & Economy Weekly Update

by
Shashank
on March 28, 2010
in Mortgage Rates
.  Leave a reply

Mortgage Rates update for San Jose and rest of California.

The week that was:

A bad one for the rate markets. Mortgage rates increased 12 basis points while the 10 yr note jumped 16 basis points. The chart below would tell you how volatile the mortgage rates were on Thursday and Friday.

  • After weeks of being contained in a narrow choppy range the rate markets broke out to the upside in terms of yield. After nine months of very strong demand for US debt, investors are not as willing to buy unless US interest rates increase to match the increasing deficits being generated in this administration’s spending binges.
  • As for higher rates; we are not expecting rates to move substantially higher from present levels this year, likely the 10 yr note will move up to 4.25% and mortgage rates increase another 50 basis points from current levels.

Mortgage Rates

The week that will be:

  • It is all about the March employment data on Friday. Consumer confidence index on Tuesday and the Mar ISM manufacturing index on Thursday.
  • The March employment picture will change dramatically with a large increase in jobs, estimates are about 200K new jobs. How markets will take it will be key!
  • The debt markets will continue to monitor the developments in Europe with Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy struggling to keep defaults from actually developing; sovereign debt failures would infect most bond markets including the US.

This week expect continued volatility in the interest rate markets, so it may be a good idea to lock your rates. I subscribe to live bond market movements and tweet about it. If you would like to be updated about live mortgage rates follow me on Twitter or get our Live Mortgage Rate Quote .

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Stimulus Deadlines Threaten Rates and Affordability; Act NOW!

by
Shashank
on March 17, 2010
in First Time Home Buyer and Mortgage Rates
.  Leave a reply

Time to act is nowThe great author and speaker Og Mandino once said, “I will act now. I will act now. I will act now.”

This is great advice for prospective homebuyers over the next 45 days, as two key government programs that have kept home ownership more affordable than ever wind down to their completion.

First, the Federal Reserve’s Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) purchase program will come to an end on March 31, just two weeks away! Without this program home loan rates could have been at least 1.00% higher…and potentially even higher…over the last year. Throughout 2009, the Federal Reserve was the primary buyer for MBS, purchasing as much as 80% of the supply in a given month. When this program ends, a lack of willing buyers will likely cause MBS prices to drop and rates to rise as a result.

The second shot will come on April 30th, which is the deadline for purchasers to get under contract to qualify for the Home Buyer Tax Credit program, which has been providing a tax credit of up to $8,000 to first time homebuyers and up to $6,500 to repeat purchasers.

Just How Much Will Waiting Cost?

While no one knows for certain what the future holds, two things appear clear. Home loan rates will likely be higher in the future, and free money from the government will be gone. These deadlines will affect both affordability to purchase and the opportunity to refi.

In a recent Wall Street Journal article, it was estimated that 37% of all borrowers with a 30-year fixed rate have interest rates of 6% or higher. The article also quotes Credit Suisse that more than half could lower their rate by nearly 0.75%.

For prospective homebuyers, any increase in interest rates erodes your purchasing power. In other words, a 1% increase in rate represents an approximate decline in purchasing power by 10%. For example, if rates increase by 1%, people who qualify for a $200,000 purchase price today may only qualify for a purchase price of $180,000 afterwards.

If you or anyone you know is looking to purchase or refinance a home, waiting could be costly! Act now…so you can save later! Contact me for a complimentary mortgage planning session or complete the rate quote form.

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Fixed Rate vs Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM)

by
Shashank
on March 14, 2010
in First Time Home Buyer and Mortgage Rates
.  Leave a reply

Whether you are buying a new home or planning to refinance, you may be asking the question - ARM vs Fixed mortgage rate - which one is better? When you are trying to make a decision on whether to take an Adjustable Rate Mortgage or a Fixed, you should consider two factors:

  • How long you plan to stay in the property?
  • What is the difference in the interest rate between an ARM & a Fixed?

Let me elaborate this:

Rates on ARMs are usually lower than fixed rate loans. But the rates are fixed only for 5 or 7 years. So if you do plan to live in your house for more than that period, you may risk your mortgage adjusting into a very high rate prevalent at that time. However, if the current interest rate difference is substantial you may still want to take the risk.

arm_vs_fixed

This chart assumes a $400,000 loan, the fixed rate is 5.25%, while for a 5 year ARM the start rate is 4.5%. In 5 years you would have saved $10,920 in monthly payments on an ARM loan. Assume, the rate on the ARM adjusts to 6% after that and you pay the same rate for next 25 years. In that case, if you kept the loan for 30 years - on a Fixed rate, you would have saved $31,080 in mortgage payments.

As you can see in the example if you were to keep the house for 5 years it absolutely made sense to get an ARM. However if you kept the loan for 30 years the fixed rate option made more sense. So make sure you factor both aspects mentioned at the beginning of the post before deciding on what kind of loan program works better for you.

If you would like help on deciding which program is better suited for your situation contact me or fill out our rate quote form.

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San Jose Mortgage Rate Weekly Update

by
Shashank
on March 8, 2010
in Mortgage Rates and Real Estate Trends
. 2 Comments

Weekly update on San Jose Mortgage Rates and economy news.

The Week That Was:

  • Freddie Mac in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® reported that 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.97 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending March 4, 2010. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 5.15 percent.
  • The 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.11 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.16 percent. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 5.08 percent.
  • Jan personal income was less than expected, up 0.1% while personal spending was strong at +0.5%.
  • Feb auto sales were expected to have increased, and they did; the only company that reported a decline was Toyota.
  • On the housing front; Jan pending home sales (the number of homes, placed under sales contract) jumped 12.3% from January 2009, but down 7.6% compared to December. According to National Association of Realtors, the drop was mainly because of harsh winter weathers.

pending_home_sales_index2

The Week That Will Be:

  • There are only a few data points that will garner attention; they do not appear until Thursday and Friday when retail sales, weekly jobless claims and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index hit.
  • The key this week is Treasury auctions; a total of $74B in 3 yr and 10 yr notes and a 30 yr bond on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

Although the mortgage markets are presently holding well, if treasury rates break out to an up-trending move (3.75% on the 10 yr) mortgage rates will follow quickly. Unless there is a major shift in sentiment about the strength of the economic rebound, to the view of a double dip coming, interest rates won’t likely decline much more. The overall view is for increasing rates this year; estimates from 4.15% on the 10 yr note to as high as 5.00%; we don’t see 5.00%, more likely 4.25%. That would mean 30 yr mortgage rates at 5.50% to 5.60%.

I subscribe to live bond market movements and tweet about it. If you would like to be updated about live mortgage rates follow me on Twitter or get our Live Mortgage Rate Quote .

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A Video on How Mortgage Interest Rates move?

by
Shashank
on March 6, 2010
in First Time Home Buyer and Mortgage Rates
. 1 Comment

If you watched the Mortgage Rates recently, it has been very volatile. Sometimes, going up and down several times a day. Have you ever wondered what makes mortgage rates go up and down? Watch this clip which explains the dynamic between bonds and mortgage rates - in simple terms.

(Video created by Dustin Hughes and Nick Mallory, www.edgevolution.com and www.thelendingjournal.com)

I subscribe to live bond market movements and tweet about it. If you would like to be updated about live mortgage rates follow me on Twitter or get our Live Mortgage Rate Quote .

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San Jose Real Estate & Mortgage Rates Report 2/21/10

by
Shashank
on February 21, 2010
in Mortgage Rates and Real Estate Trends
.  Leave a reply

Your weekly dose of San Jose Mortgage Rates, Real Estate Trends and top Economy news.

The week that was:

  • Freddie Mac in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® reported that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.93 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending February 18, 2010.  The 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.12 percent this week, with an average 0.5 point.
  • The National Association of Realtors®  (NAR) reported that existing home sales rose in 48 states and the District of Columbia between the third and fourth quarters of 2009; 32 states experienced double-digit growth.
  • New home construction is also slowly improving. One-family housing starts rose to an annual pace of 484,000 homes in January, which is up almost 36 percent from January 2009, based on the U.S. Census figures. Moreover, homebuilder assessments of market conditions over the first half of 2010 improved in February, according to National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo Housing Market  Index.
  • The Fed increased the discount rate to 0.75% from 0.50%. It in itself is not going to increase lending rates, but it once and for all signals the Fed is finished supporting banks and other recipients of government largesse.

The Week that will be:

  • Jan housing statistics this week with new and existing home sales, both expected to have increased from Dec. The Dec Case/Shiller home price index also out.
  • And there is more; two consumer sentiment indexes (the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index and the U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index).

Interest rates are headed higher, in a choppy pattern but up. As for any potential for a sizeable decline in rates; it will take a solid break in the equity markets which at this point doesn’t seem likely.

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San Jose Mortgages Rates & Market Commentary 02/08/10

by
Shashank
on February 8, 2010
in Mortgage Rates
.  Leave a reply

Your weekly dose of San Jose Mortgage Rates and Market Commentary.

The Week That Was:

  • Freddie Mac in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® reported that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.01 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending February 4, 2010, up from last week when it averaged 4.98 percent. The 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.27 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, up from last week when it averaged 4.25 percent.
  • Pending existing home sales rebounded by 1 percent in December from a record drop in November that was due in part to the original expiration of the homebuyer tax credit, according the National Association of Realtors®.
  • More recently mortgage applications for home purchases jumped 10 percent at the end of January, according to figures from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
  • The employment report dominated trade last week; once again the headlines don’t accurately reflect the true state of unemployment. 9.7% unemployed in Jan with non-farm job losses of 20K.
  • Consumers continue to slow spending; Dec consumer credit fell again by $1.73B. The 11th month in a row consumer credit has declined.

Read more..

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Bay Area mortgage rates for 5 Year ARM sinks below 4%

by
Shashank
on February 5, 2010
in Mortgage Rates
.  Leave a reply

The Mortgage Rates for a 5 Year adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) sank to 4% (and lower in some cases)* yesterday for Bay Area homes. Freddie Mac average rates released on yesterday reported 5 Year ARM at 4.27% at 0.6 points. But the rate improvements later in the day has opened up great opportunities for home owners and First Time Home Buyers. This could be great news if:

  • You already own a home but plan to move out by 2016.
  • You are a First-Time Home buyer and would like to move up in next 5-6 years.
  • You plan to pay off or substantially pay down your mortgage in the next 5 years.

monthly_savings_on_an_arm_loan

Assumption for the chart: 30 Year Fixed rate at 5.25% and the 5 Year ARM at 4%.

On a 5 Year ARM loan, the rate remains fixed for first 5 years and may adjust after that to a higher rate. In the chart above you could save more than $16,000 in next 5 years on a $417,000 balance even after accounting for a small closing cost to refinance. On a $700,000 balance that number is a whopping $28,000 and for $300,000 it is $12,000. There are no cost refinances available as well.

Don’t get me wrong. 30 Year Fixed rate is still a great option if you want a stable rate mortgage and plan to live in the house for a longer term. And the 30 year fixed rate continues to be at a historically lowest levels in low 5s.

Call me at 408.905.6261 or email me at shashank@arcuslending.com if you would like a free evaluation of your mortgage to see if an ARM loan is right for you. Since I am a mortgage broker approved with more than 100 lenders, I can shop for the best rates for you.

* The rates are subjected to change any time without notice. Credit, Income, Equity and other eligibility required to qualify.

Related Post - Rates set to go up after March 2010

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San Jose Mortgage Rate & Market Commentary 02/01/10

by
Shashank
on February 1, 2010
in Mortgage Rates
.  Leave a reply

Your weekly dose of San Jose Mortgage Rates and Market commentary.

The Week that was:

  • Freddie Mac reported in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® that 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 4.98 percent with an average 0.6 point for the week ending January 28, 2010, down slightly from last week when it averaged 4.99 percent.  The 5 year adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.25 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.27 percent.
  • Q4 advance GDP was stronger than expected at +5.7% but will likely be revised lower when we get the preliminary revision next month.
  • Treasury once again was able to get strong demand for $118B of notes sold last week.
  • In my humble opinion, Obama’s State of the Union speech was more fluff than substance in the aftermath of voter rebellion in Massachusetts; cost cutting and more job growth help but not specifics.

The Week that will be:

  • This is going to be employment week with Jan data coming on Friday.
  • No Treasury borrowing this week, however, on Wednesday Treasury will announce the following week’s auctions for 3 yr notes, 10 yr notes and 30 yr bonds; likely about $80B in total.

Market volatility this week will likely be up a little with interday swings that will keep markets in check until the employment data on Friday morning.

If you are in the market to buy or refinance a San Jose home and want to find out how economy news can affect your mortgage rates call me at 408.905.6261 or email me shashank@arcuslending.com.

Some other related posts on Mortgage Rates - http://lendingexpertblog.com/blogs/?cat=44

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Bay Area Mortgage Rates set to go up because of Fed actions

by
Shashank
on January 27, 2010
in Mortgage Rates
. 1 Comment

The Fed’s statement today does not augur well for Bay Area Mortgage Rates. The Fed’s policy-setting committee stuck to a plan to end its purchases of mortgage securities by the end of March.

Background - The program to purchase agency mortgage-backed securities (agency MBS)  was announced by the Federal Reserve on November 25, 2008. On Wednesday, March 18, the FOMC announced the expansion of the Federal Reserve’s program to purchase agency MBS up to $1.25 trillion by the end of the year. On September 23, 2009, the FOMC announced that the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and gradually slow the pace of these purchases, anticipating they will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010.

The purchases have helped to drive down mortgage interest rates (refer chart below for Mortgage Rates in the last decade. Source - Freddie Mac), providing an important boost to U.S. housing and financial markets. When the Fed stops buying, rates on mortgages could turn higher. According to Fannie Mae chief economist Doug Duncan Mortgage Rates can go up by 30 to 50 basis points if Fed stops buying Mortgage Backed Securities. In fact, immediately after Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement today, most of the lenders issued a repricing for worse. For a $500,000 an increase in 50 bps in rate means an increase of  $155 a month on a San Jose home mortgage payment.
mortgage_rates_this_decade

In its meeting in December, some Fed officials argued the housing market might not be ready for an end to the MBS purchase plan and suggested keeping it in place for a longer period or even expanding it. With Fed now saying the economy had “continued to strengthen” and business spending was “picking up” ; it is trying to gradually pull back from the many programs initiated between 2007 and 2009 to stabilize the financial system and lift the economy.

So if you were planning to take a mortgage either to refinance or buy a home, time could be running out for low mortgage rates. Call me today at 408.905.6261 or email me at shashank@arcuslending.com and let me shop 100+ lenders for you to get you the best Bay Area Mortgage Rates.

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San Jose Mortgage Rates & Market Commentary 1/24/10

by
Shashank
on January 24, 2010
in Mortgage Rates and Real Estate Trends
.  Leave a reply

Your weekly dose of San Jose Mortgage Rates and Market commentary.

The week that was:

  • Freddie Mac reported in its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® that 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 4.99 percent with an average 0.7 point for the week ending January 21, 2010, down from last week when it averaged 5.06 percent. The 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 4.27 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, down from last week when it averaged 4.32 percent. Note that these averages are for conforming loan amounts $417,000 and lower.
  • Wall Street Journal reported that California’s inventory of unsold, previously owned homes shrank to a five-year low in December, in another sign that the state may be coming out of its worst housing slump in decades. The supply of unsold single-family homes dropped to 3.8 months from 5.6 months a year ago and 16.6 months in January 2008. The inventory levels are now at their lowest level since 2005, resulting in frenzied sales with multiple offers in some cities. In Santa Clara County, inventory has dropped to 50 days from 243 a year ago.
  • One of the most surprising developments last week was the way the Senate is back-peddling the confirmation of Ben Bernanke for his second term. Greenspan, Paul Volker, Warren Buffett, most former Fed officials; and last but not least, investors want Bernanke confirmed but now its populist movement for weak minded politicians that are increasingly worried they too may be tossed on the unemployed rolls in Nov that has weakened Bernanke support.

Read more..

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